Analysis and forecasting

We will first start with a very simple example to make it easier to understand our analysis

We start with a classical method of analysis, what we call analysis by elements

Let we take the (simplified) example of somebody going to fish a big lake. Suppose that at the beginning he starts with a small boat and a net . He will try to catch as many fishes as possible and if he can sell them easily, he will invest in new material to increase his catching. Gradually, with the increase of his income, he will invest in a bigger ship, people to work with him, larger nets until one day he will have many big boats. Soon, he will notice that it is necessary to fish longer to fill the boats and that most fishes are smaller. To improve his catch he will then invest in new devices to detect where the fishes are and he will reduce the size of the mesh of the net. For a while this will improve his catching. But again he will soon discover that there is less ans less fishes until the day he will be unable to go on. He has emptied the lake.
At around the same time, using the same kind of analysis, farmers or real estate developers will have drained swamps at the lake's edge, fill in shallow wetland that were breeding grounds for the fishes. All this without speaking about polluters who found it cheaper to discharge their waste into rivers flowing into the lake rather than reprocessing it.
The fisherman will not be able to repay the money he got from the banks to buy his boats, his warehouse, his material. To clean up pollution will cost more than the short term profit made. To give money to the banker would be useless. The economy based on the fishery will not be able to survive. Of course, it is possible the man will try to start the same thing somewhere else... if people there let him do it.

If we use a global method of analysis starting with the study of processes (relations between everything, what we call an analysis by relations). What do we get

In that case, before trying to develop the fishery we will first study the breeding processes for the different species, interaction between species, the influence of external inputs as rivers, swamps, wildlife, flora around the lake. Likewise it will be necessary to study the influence of seasons, weather... to be able to describe as fully as possible the different processes and their relations. This will give a table of the natural limits.
Fishing will modify the equilibrium of the lake. It is necessary to try to evaluate the impact of the fishery on each species to work out a table of which species and of which size can be fished, in which number, when, how... This way, it will be possible to create a sustainable fishery. Instead of short term profit and « we see later » policy, a sustainable economic activity will then be created

Let us use now another example

Suppose now we are confronted with the problem of a factory that needs money to avoid bankruptcy

How do we analyze this ?

What does this enterprise needs ? Raw materials, energy, various supply, working people with the required knowledge. This factory is producing goods that are needed by the population or others industries. What is missing so that this enterprise can go on making goods ? Money ? Why ? Because the buying power of the population is too low to pay for those goods ? What is money ? What is it used for ? How is it created ? Out of thin air by the central bank ? Why is this central bank not creating money to give more buying power to the population through higher wages ? Who decides when money is created and what for ? What is the effect of money creation on the economy ? To give money to bankers because this factory is not able to repay its debts is totally useless for the economy (Not for the bankers!), but increasing wages would solve the problem.
Thinking about those questions, it is easier to understand the differences between China (large wages increase as response to the crisis) and the Western countries (make it sure rich people don't loose money). Reducing further the buying power of the people worsen the crisis. The consequences are there, more and more production in China, collapse of the real economy in the West.

You have there two different political point of view. In the West, the enterprise is a tool to make money for the owners or shareholders, not first to produce goods. In China, the enterprise is a tool to develop a part of the real economy according to the need of the country.

We better understand now why the method of analysis by elements is used in the West and why by doing this the West deprived itself of an efficient method to manage not only the economy but also factories, production lines or even software... It is not possible to use one method at one level and and another at higher level. Using a method of analysis by relations at any level will immediately highligh contradictions between the purpose of the organization of the economy in the West ( to allow a few individuals to get a buying power without any relations to what they produce) and the needs of the population.

However, it is not the political consequences of this analysis we are interested in but the fact that by doing so, western societies deprive themselves of a very efficient method not only to manage the economy but also to produce goods, to develop technology. This will make it totally impossible for the West to stay competitive. On top of that, the more complex the technology the worst the differences.

There is still another problem. To remain in power, the feudal aristocracy to begin with and the financial power later have created various means to manipulate the psychological structure of the popupations using religious beliefs, the fear of the other people, the fight against terrorism, etc... which purpose is to intensify the anxiety of the individuals to amplify what psychoanalysts call the unconscious . As those mechanisms are at least partly the result of manipulation by the people in power it means they also know how to manipulate this anxiety. This has prevented any large revolt againts the system but, on the other hand this has made any necessary evolution impossible too... Even if, tomorrow, clever people would be in power and understand that this type of organization lead our societies to a dead end, they would not be able to change anything. The psychological structures of the population are « locked ». Those leaders would be toppled by any people promising to restore a situation where the populations does not need to face their anxiety and modify their psychological structures, even at the cost of a world war !

Among the most efficient manipulations used is what the west call « women liberation » (in the western way of course) . One should note that this type of manipulation has been used in the USSR as well as in the West ! What is the aim of this type of « liberation » ? First, that instead of ĥaving to pay the husband a salary sufficient to allow the family to live on it, this salary has been divided between husband and wife. But it is not the most important. Giving a greatest emphasis on the statut of the individual in the economy, even before the unity of the family is a way to « divide and conquer » . It has even more important consequences regarding relations between men and women, parents and children by dissociating human beings from their biology to make those humans « theoritical subjects » in the service of the power in Western countries as well as in the USSR.

To understand the future, it is necessary to add to a good analysis of the economy an analysis of the psychological structures of the population and as those are the result of the social organization of the society as well as of history you need to study history from all point of view as well as biology, psychoanalysis, etc...

What are we forecasting with this type of analysis ?

First we have to note that if Karl Marx has made a very good analysis of the economy, at least taking into account what was known at his time, Lenin has decided that the kind of problems studied by psychoanalysis where problems of « bourgeois » and as such would disappear once the working class would take the power. Rejecting this new science and thinking that the « working class », the population knew very well its needs and would act accordingly, Lenin has created the basis of the downfall of the USSR. This downfall is a proof by reductio ad absurdum of the reality of this psychological structure, of the unconscious. It is a proof that populations will act predominantly according to their collective unconscious and not according to an analysis of the real world. Indeed, the real economy of Russia has collapsed by 50 or 60% with as consequence the premature death or the « non birth » of millions of people. The losses of Russia have been larger following the downfall of the USSR than in the second world war and are lasting much longer. Even today the volume of production and technology of the real economy of Russia is far under the level reached in 1989.

One should not expect this kind of phenomenon in China. First Mao had well understood the problem of the psychological structure of the population and started the cultural revolution to modify this structure. Second , the Chinese civilization is a very old one based on a global analysis of the real world and will go on that way. We can say they are using a type of analysis by relations. The financial power is subordinated to the political power and not the contrary like in western societies, even if the situation is more complex and there are in fact various trends.
In term of the real economy (production and not money) China is already and by far the first economy of the planet as the various graphics of this site will show and this country will go on developing its economy and technology.

In a different way, far more complex but still fairly efficient if one take into account its size and the various problem this country has to face, Iran will go on developing its production and technology to a point finally close to the Chinese path or even faster. How is it possible since a large part of the power is in the hand of religious leaders ? Well, I would say thanks to the various aggression against this country, especially the constant direct or indirect aggression by Israel and the West. This has resulted in the leaders and the population collaborating to develop a fairly autonomous production and technology. It is most likely that this very old civilization will become , with the countries around, the second most powerful country in less than 20 years. The policy of the West has forced this country to choose between giving the highest priority to religious undertaking or to devote all the energy to developing the real economy. The various wars of the West against Muslim countries will accelerate the rallying of most of those countries around Iran. The gigantic US aircraft carrier that is Israel is probably the main factor that has accelerated this development. The feudal Muslim countries are fighting alongside the West but this will only accelerate their downfall. A war against Iran will only accelerate those development

Contrary to what many people think about India, the development of this country has nothing to do with the development of China. The real economy is not much more than 1/10 of the chinese real economy and the indian society is very much divided

The development of South America is still very much linked to technology produced outside. In Africa, only Libya was a well developed country but this country has been destroyed by the Nato forces.

Forecast for the crisis in the West

The financial world has taken over the power. The first use for money was to make trade between consumer and producer easier. However, producing has been quickly a secondary purpose of capitalism. The real purpose was to organize the economy in such a way that a few individuals could have access to consuming goods without any relations to what they produce. To get this result It is much easier to create directly money without producing any goods. At the same time as this sector of the economy was expanding faster and faster, it lost any use it could have had in the western societies to become a part of the economy only striving for its own development. The real economy becoming more and more a kind of burden or at best a pretext for the financial world.
The financial world has become exactly like a cancerous cell that has lost any useful function for the body and only try to develop itself faster and faster up to the point of destroying the body it depends of. This comparison is the best way to describe the development of the financial industry today. It only takes a look at the productive sector of the West or at the state of disrepair of many infrastructures to see it. If we look at the social relations, especially relations between men and women we again see a state of degeneration with the loss of human relations and the prevalence of short term individualism.
This crisis is structural, even without taking account of the method of analysis used. We are confronted to an economic, social, cultural, psychological crisis and a financial cancer. We move toward a major crisis, possibly a world war. But should we reach such a point, this will result in the end of the West as a meaningful power.

This analysis explain our position. We consider political action as useless because the populations are not asking for it. We think that the crisis is only beginning and that the only useful action we can make is limited to innovate, improve management, reduce cost to be more competitive at least locally. But we also think it is necessary to try to foresee events before they happen to be able to act when there is still some time left instead of reacting to events. For the rest we are fully aware that most western people will choose to give priority to their own personal short term interest. The result will be the downfall of their economy, a kind of self destruction similar to what happened in the USSR.

Another way to see the situation is to compare it to what happened in Spain more than 500 years ago. Around 1500 AC, Spain was the most powerful country of Europe with a population about 4 times as large as the one of Great Britain. 200 years later after various wars and the inquisition, in spite of tens of thousands of tons of silver and gold coming from colonies the spanish economy had collapsed. The country was not able anymore to feed its population, its industry was totally outclassed by the industries of Great Britain, Flanders or part of what is now Germany. The population was the same as in Great Britain. Spain become a third rate country and has never been able since then to rise again. You just replace « Spain » by « the West », « inquisition » by « fight against terrorism » and « tens of thousands of tons of silver and gold » by « the financial industry » and you get the same picture.

To this you need to add an other problem. To create money out of thin air comes down to change distribution of goods in the real economy, It is a kind of tax on producers in favour of those who create or receive this money. This is particularly true if this money is given to the financial word. When money is created and distributed as buying power or as a way to manage investments in the real economy the effect may be beneficial except if it is badly invested. When this money is given to the financial world this indirectly increases the costs of production. Since the amount of money created that way is enormous this means that nowadays it is the most important, even if indirect, part of the costs of production. As a consequence, the real economy is collapsing in the West.

We have to add to this another form of destruction of the real economy. If we call « real capital » the means of production together with raw materials and energy resources of a country, a war has as consequence the destruction of this capital be it only through the wear on the means of production, the raw material and energy used and what is destroyed on the battlefield without even speaking about wasting human capital. To this you have to add all resources used to look after the injured or disabled. All this without even speaking about the thousands of millions of people who have lost a member of their family or their wealth because of the wars waged by the West and who soon or later will take some form of revenge. The wars are only financially benefiting a small number of people.

To better understand what are the effects of a war you should compare it to the actions of a few individuals who, to steal the money on board the ship they are traveling with, would use a type of operation that, while letting them open the vault, will sink the ship. You will not find any logic or economic explanation to this type of action. Only a study of the psychological structure allow to understand the motivation behind this type of action. You will then discover that there are no real biological need at the base of this action but you will find various and complex type of anxieties that those individuals are unable to face. This results in a quest for power, unlimited power. The financial cancer that is destroying the West takes its root in a social cancer that is the product of our history. The people in power tried to stay in power by manipulating the psychological structure of the populations to replace the direct knowledge of the real world by a kind of virtual world that justify the existing social organization. Most individuals in the West want to get more and more money as a form of power without really knowing what is money, how it is created instead of trying to understand and develop the real economy. At the same time countries like China, Iran are trying to develop the means of producing an answer to their needs. This is clearly shown by the graphics and picture of this Website

CIESINT   Published on 2013-01-05   Read by 9011

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